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Marketing MathTM

Category Archives: Marketing

Are Advertisers Ready, Willing and Able to Trust Their Agency Partners?

14 Dec

partnershipInteresting survey from Advertiser Perceptions, which queried marketers on topics ranging from favorite ad agency holding company to whether or not they would consider using a management consulting firm in lieu of a traditional ad agency.

Beyond marketers’ rankings of various agency brands, the most intriguing finding is one that is still centered on the “trust” crisis that has enveloped the industry for the last several years. Two-thirds of those surveyed “feel that their agencies are not open and transparent on cost” and “that they are not willing to share meaningful KPIs with their agencies.” This could certainly prove problematic for advertiser and agency alike moving forward Read More

Agencies vs. Consultants: What Does the Future Hold for Marketers?

24 Nov


pro vs con
Have you formed an opinion yet on the battle between traditional advertising agencies and management consulting firms for marketing and advertising supremacy?

Many have, citing profound differences between these two types of professional services providers. The basis for the beliefs are centered on a range of characteristics attributed to each type of firm, including; company culture, strategic focus, business processes, talent pools, breadth of capabilities and ability to provide integrated solutions.

The question to be asked, as management consultants continue to push into ad agency territory (largely through acquisition) is; “Are the differences between these entities meaningful?” Or will the blending of these two types of firms ultimately result in a level playing field among the large agency holding companies and international consultancies?

Most pundits suggest that the differences are very real, with consultants largely grounded in a strategic focus on how to boost a company’s performance, and agency services centered on building brands by leveraging traditional media channels and touchpoints. Clearly both perspectives are valuable in their own right. Along with these differences, other complicating factors are at play that will determine the ultimate outcome.

  1. Marketers seem to be increasingly focused on improving in-market performance, which is becoming the principal means of validating the efficacy of their advertising programs. Metrics such as awareness, consideration and brand purchase intent are all well-and-good, but at the end of the day organizations are more interested in topline growth, market share expansion and bottom-line profits.
  2. There have been profound shifts in consumer purchase behavior and questions raised about the validity of the traditional purchase funnel used by marketers to map a consumer’s progression from awareness to action. In today’s digital-centric world of transacting business the path to purchase is not as linear as it once was.
  3. Research among younger shoppers suggests that marketers can no longer pre-suppose that brands matter. Certainly not to the extent that they once did. In an industry where it is projected that companies will spend in excess of $1.0 trillion on marketing services in 2017 (source: GroupM, 2016 “Global Ad Expenditures Forecast”) this is quite alarming. According to Havas Worldwide’s 2015 annual index of “Meaningful Brands” it was determined that “only 5% of brands would truly be missed by consumers U.S. consumers.” Driving this trend has been the emergence of the 75 million plus U.S. millennial target segment, whose trust in brands has been eroded as have their perceptions of genuineness and brand authenticity.

These trends may point to a larger shift, where consumer purchase behavior is more readily shaped by relationships, peer input and social influences rather than by branding. Thus the ad industry’s model of pushing brand messaging through a variety of media channels as a way of creating awareness and consideration in the hope of driving purchase intent may not yield the results it once did. It is likely that this traditional approach will be supplanted by social engagement and social selling as consumers take control of the pre-purchase learning and competitive evaluation portion of the purchase decision making process.

This could allow management consultancies to curry favor among marketers under pressure to drive performance in the short-term. The consultancies ability to offer integrated end-to-end solutions including; organizational design, transformational strategy development, user experience design, data analytics, technology support and increasingly branding and marketing expertise is considered to be quite compelling to many Chief Marketing Officers.

With so much at stake, it is certain that the agency holding companies and global consulting organizations will continue to invest in transforming their businesses to better serve marketers seeking to evolve their approach to achieving in-market success. In the words of Jeff Bezos, Founder of Amazon:

“We expect all our businesses to have a positive impact on our top and bottom lines, Profitability is very important to us or we wouldn’t be in this business.”

Advertisers: Beware of Shiny New Tech Solutions

10 Nov

Interesting perspective, but the premise that CMOs will “turn their brands into platforms” and “will become obsessed with understanding consumer emotion, measuring it and tapping into it with precision” is one that is unlikely to materialize simply by doubling ad tech expenditures in 2018.

There remain many challenges to be confronted by marketers along the path to enlightenment. Issues including data accuracy, relevancy and quality along with assessing the viability of the myriad of technology solutions looking for problems to solve. If marketers aren’t careful they will end up funding the growth of a new genre of tech toys at the expense of boosting working media and driving brand performance  Read More

Are We Missing the Real Issue with Ad Blockers?

26 Oct

blocker

 

The advertising industry is rightly concerned about the financial impact related to consumers growing use of ad blockers, which can filter out ads before users ever see them. A recent study by OnAudience.com highlights the reasons why:

  • 26% of U.S. consumers now use ad blockers, resulting in lost publisher revenues of $15.8 billion in 2016, up from $11.0 billion in 2015. The U.S. represents approximately $45 billion of the $100 billion global display market.
  • Internationally, the loss of publisher revenue from ad blocking is projected to rise to $42 billion, up from $28 billion in 2016.

In addition, Google has announced that the 2018 version of its Chrome web browser will allow consumers to automatically block “annoying, intrusive” ads, which will accelerate the financial impact of this trend given that Chrome represents approximately 60% of the desktop/mobile/tablet browser market (source: NETMARKETSHARE, September 2017). Google’s motivation, it claims, is that they are simply introducing the Coalition for Better Ads recently announced best practices standards to enhance the consumer’s web browsing experience.

It is no surprise how we got where we are. Advertisers wanted to improve consumer engagement and publishers wanted to drive revenues. This, in turn, led to publishers placing more ads on a web page, including higher paying video units, making ads larger or forcing visitors to somehow interact with these ads to get to the content. This involves video ads that automatically refresh or blast audio automatically or force consumers to wait for :05 to :10 seconds before they can access the content they seek.

In the end, advertisers and publishers have not realized greater levels of engagement, but rather helped to fuel greater levels of consumer irritation and therefore ad blocker usage.

Thus far, the industry has been focused on blocking the ad blockers. It is true that many publishers believe that being exposed to ads is a user’s obligation if they want their content to be free. Others, however, share the consumer’s disdain for obnoxious, intrusive ads, and would like to see them banned from their sites. The problem is that ad blockers tend to block all ads.

So what is the ad industry to do? Busting the use of ad blockers or implementing web browser workarounds would appear to be somewhat short-sighted. Consumers have clearly signaled that they find the level, number, positioning and type of online ads served to them on a regular basis to be discordant with their intended browsing habits. Pursuing a more measured approach on the part of the industry is warranted. As Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg intoned:

“Reacting in anger or annoyance will not advance one’s ability to persuade.”

The challenge is clear, finding a mechanism for publishers to fund their content creation at least in part through the use of online advertising. The answer, however, is not so readily apparent.

Let’s face it, by in large, consumers do not want to view online advertising. This can be evidenced by plummeting open and click-through rates, reductions in conversion rates and declines in average viewing times. Advertisers and publishers want “engagement” and sadly, consumers want nothing to do with most of the advertising foisted on them.

Is the answer better creative that informs, educates and entertains in the hope that users will both notice the ads and choose to interact with them? Or is it fewer, less intrusive ads that can take away from a user’s web browsing experience? Or will publishers finally have to solve the “pay to view” content dilemma, which consumers have largely been resistant to thus far?

If consumer engagement is the goal, the answer is likely “Yes” to all of the above.

 

Trust is Causing Issues Across the Advertising Landscape

26 Sep

questionThe Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) Council just released a study, which suggests that a lack of trust is causing issues for marketers that reach beyond their relationship with agencies and publishers.

The study, which surveyed 300 senior marketers and which was profiled in Mediapost.com, found that “63% of consumers said they respond more positively to the same ads when they find them in more established and trusted media environments.” Thus the perceived risks to marketers emanating from today’s programmatic media buying and automated digital media are more pervasive than Read More

Will AI Render Media Agencies Obsolete?

11 Sep

artificial_intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already reshaping how advertising is developed, planned and placed. The marketing applications being envisioned and adopted by agencies, consultancies, publishers and advertisers are nothing short of remarkable.

From the onset of “Big Data” it stood to reason that the concept of predictive analysis, the act of mining diverse sets of data to generate recommendations wouldn’t be far behind. Layer on natural language processing, which converts text into structured data, and it is clear to see that “deep learning” is on the verge of revolutionizing the ad industry. As it stands, algorithms are currently optimizing bids for media buying, utilizing custom and syndicated data to match audience desires (or at least experiences) with available inventory.

Effective, efficient, automated methodologies for sorting through vast volumes of data to evaluate and establish patterns that reflect customer behavior for use in segmenting audiences and customizing message construction and delivery holds obvious promise.

So, what does this mean for media agencies? Will they be at the forefront of automation technology? Or will they be swept away by the consultancies and ad tech providers that are already investing here?

If media agencies desire to remain in control as the industry evolves, there are real challenges that they will have to address to remain viable:

  • Re-establish role as “trusted advisor” with the advertiser community. Recent concerns over transparency, unsavory revenue generation practices and a failure to pro-actively safeguard advertisers’ media investments from fraud and from running in inappropriate environments have created serious client/ agency relationship concerns.
  • Attract, train and retain top-level talent to re-staff media planning and buying departments. The focus will need to be on bridging the gap between developing, and applying automation technology and providing high-level consulting support focused on brand growth to their clients. Presently, media agencies are not effectively competing for talent, whether in the context of compensation and or personal and career development options being offered by their non-traditional competitors.
  • Provide a framework for addressing the compensation conundrum. Whether this is in the form of cost-based or performance-based fees tied to project outcomes, commissions or hybrid remuneration systems, tomorrow’s successful media agencies will need to establish clear, compelling compensation systems. These systems will need to reflect value propositions that will differentiate them from an expanded base of competitors, while offsetting (to some extent) non-transparent sources of revenue that many media shops have come to rely on in recent years.

This will not be an easy path for media agencies, particularly for those that are hampered by legacy systems, processes and management perspectives that may limit their ability to more broadly envision and ultimately, assist client organizations addressing their needs and expectations.

Either way, the race is on, as management consulting firms are acquiring various marketing and digital media specialist firms and as media agencies raid the consultancies for personnel to build out their strategic consulting capabilities. The key question will likely be, “Which business model holds the greatest promise, in the eyes of the Chief Marketing Officer, for improving brand performance?

 

 

 

 

 

Economic Growth Projections Raise Concerns for Ad Industry

25 Aug

economyAdvertising agencies are finding that organic growth will be a difficult objective to achieve in the near-term.

One contributing factor comes in the form of marketing spending constraints on the part of advertisers. Why? Organizations are feeling pressure to control costs in the wake of lack luster market conditions that are limiting growth and reducing margins.

The key economic indicator driving advertiser concern is “slow growth” which is impacting many sectors of the economy:

  • GDP growth of 1.2% during the 1st quarter and 2.6% in the 2nd quarter (short of the sustained 3%+ growth rate promised by the White House).
  • U.S. retail sales, excluding auto and gasoline, rose 0.5% in July ’17.
  • Fast-Casual restaurant sales fell more than 3% in the first quarter of 2017.
  • U.S. automotive sales have fallen for seven straight months (Jan. – Jul.).
  • Homebuilder confidence sank, posting HMI’s lowest reading in over 6 mos.

Two CPG giants have announced dramatic moves, which reflect the nature of this challenge. Unilever signaled its intent to reduce the number of agencies on its roster by 50%, while cutting the quantity of ads produced by 30%. Procter & Gamble Co. indicated that it would trim $2 billion in marketing spend over five years as part of an enterprise wide expense reduction initiative.

It is worth noting that there are motivations beyond “cost reduction” driving these decisions by advertisers. Consider fast-food giant McDonald’s, which earlier this year trimmed the number of agencies that it works with from 60 to fewer than a dozen. Their goals included streamlining marketing and improving the consistency of their output… in addition to reducing expenses.

Unfortunately, the impact of slower spending by advertisers is being felt on Wall Street. According to an August, 24 article in the NY Times, WPP which had earlier cut its revenue forecast saw its share price decline by 10.9% in London, with Omnicom Group and Interpublic Group falling 7% and 6.3% respectively in the U.S. and media stocks are generally lower as a sector.

Interestingly, advertisers have made a conscious decision not to fuel marketing spend to counter slowing sales, but to cut spending to protect margins, which is particularly concerning to the ad agency community.

With increased competition from non-traditional players (i.e. management consulting and technology firms) and the continued fall-out from an industry transparency crisis, the lack of confidence on the part of marketers regarding advertising’s ability to drive profitable revenue growth is certainly a worry.

Whether or not this slowdown in organic growth on the part of ad agencies portends a slump, remains to be seen, but at the very least the macro-economic uncertainty will serve to increase industry volatility. Perhaps the industry can find some solace in the words of Yogi Berra the hall of fame catcher and manager of the New York Yankees: “Slump? I ain’t in no slump… I just ain’t hitting.”

 

 

Does Anyone Really Want Advertisers to Solve the Attribution Dilemma?

14 Mar

conspiracyIt has been decades since the concept of Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM), the forerunner to Attribution Modeling, was introduced. The concept was relatively straightforward, marketers would apply statistical analysis to sales and marketing data to quantify the impact that each element of the marketing mix had in driving brand sales and profit. Once the causal relationship had been modeled, marketers would then be able to accurately forecast outcomes and inform resource allocation decisions.

While the concept may have been straightforward, the solution, for most marketers, has been elusive. Why? First and foremost, MMM has some inherent challenges, particularly when it comes to quantifying the impact of longer term brand equity development tactics versus those focused on short-term sales. Secondly, these models have not fared well in accurately assessing the impact of various media types on outcomes to assist in refining allocation decisions.

Fast forward to the late ‘90’s when we experienced an explosion in online media, the birth of e-commerce and the introduction of “Big Data.” The emergence of digital media and the attendant level of data that marketers where now able to gather led to the launch of “Attribution Modeling.” The goal, to assess and quantify what marketing and media touchpoints influenced an advertiser’s target audience, and to what extent, across the purchase funnel in an effort to optimize media spending across the ever expanding gamut of media alternatives.

While there are multiple variations of attribution models to consider, most marketers have relied on single-source attribution models, often using a “last click” approach which assigns responsibility for an outcome to one event. While simple, this flawed approach to attribution modeling gives too much credit to digital media, at the expense of traditional media and other marketing touchpoints.

Sadly, for advertisers that are doing both MMM and Attribution Modeling, it is rare that the feedback from these related, but different approaches synch. Further, there remain audience delivery measurement (i.e. cross-channel measurement), multi-touch attribution challenges that introduce a layer of complexity that drives up the cost of attribution modeling.

That said, since the onset of these two modeling tools being introduced, the industry has dramatically evolved its data gathering capabilities, enhanced CRM and DMP capabilities, conceived of and launched programmatic media buying, where algorithms have replaced media buyers and now we’re seeing the use of artificial intelligence bots, such as Adgorithms’ “Albert” that can plan and place media and create content. Heady stuff to be sure.

This got the cynic in me thinking; “Well if we can master all of this from a technology perspective, surely we should be able to cost efficiently and effectively master attribution modeling.” That led to idle speculation about whether or not the ad industry really wants advertisers to solve the attribution modeling dilemma?

After all, what if John Wanamaker was wrong? What if more than half of his ad spend was wasted? Remember, the marketing and media choices available to him in the 19th century were considerably more limited than those available to advertisers today. Would accurate attribution models eliminate some of the following marketing and media options from consideration?

  • Television
  • Radio
  • Magazine
  • Newspaper
  • OOH
  • Cinema advertising
  • Product placement
  • Direct mail
  • Email
  • Sponsorships
  • Online display
  • Online video
  • Podcasts
  • Paid search
  • Organic search
  • Mobile
  • Social media
  • Native advertising
  • In-store advertising
  • In-store displays
  • On-package advertising
  • Trade promotions
  • Price promotions
  • Couponing
  • Affinity marketing
  • Affiliate marketing
  • Applications
  • Earned media

Crazy. Right? Reminds me of a quote by the American journalist, Gary Weiss:

“One problem with the focus on speculation is that it tends to promote the growth of the great intellectual cancer of our times: conspiracy theories.”

What do you think…

 

Here We Go Again…

05 Jul

mobilityIs the ad industry about to make the same mistake with mobile as it did with digital? Early on in the platform’s development, it would appear so.

On a positive note, according to new figures from eMarketer, mobile ad spending will surpass $100 billion in spending in 2016, accounting for more than 50% of all digital ad expenditures.

However, there are challenges that need to be addressed. Chiefly, there are a lack of uniform viewability and audience measurement standards in place to validate publisher performance. Today, different publishers utilize a variety of different methods for counting impressions. The key point of contention with mobile is whether or not the publisher delivers on ads rendered or fully loaded as opposed to ad calls.

According to the Media Rating Council, which issued their “mobile viewable ad impression measurement guidelines” this past spring “Each valid viewable impression originates from a valid rendered mobile served impression. In no case should viewable impressions exceed render mobile served impressions counted on a campaign.”

When you look at the numbers, the waste factor in mobile advertising is alarming. In a recent article by Allison Schiff on Adexchanger, entitled; “The Buy Side Doesn’t Want Impressions Counted Before They Hatch” mobile ad server, Medialets, suggested that in a review of “2.7 billion impressions across its mobile ad server” that it found that “roughly 20% of ad calls on the mobile web were “wasted,” aka they don’t ever fully render on a device.”

Concerns over ad delivery and measurement issues related to mobile sound all to familiar to the growing pains suffered by advertisers with online display advertising served to desktop devices. Add in the newness and complexity of the segment, and advertisers would be foolish not to be mindful about their investment in this area.

In the near-term, the best path forward for advertisers to take is to enforce an ad rendered versus ad called verification approach, establish minimum viewability thresholds and utilize only MRC accredited vendors that are willing to adhere to industry standards. It should be noted that while the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) established a 70% viewability threshold for measured impressions in 2015 many mobile platforms are “guaranteeing” viewability levels as high as 100%.

When you consider that according to eMarketer, over 31 million U.S. internet users will only go online using a mobile device in 2016, it is clear that the segments potential is high. Let’s hope that the learning curve is not as steep as the adoption path.

 

 

Why Contract Definitions and Demonstrations are Important

01 Feb

contract complianceFor as long as there have been advertisers and agencies, there have been Client-Agency agreements. Contractual instruments, which are often referred to as “terms of divorce.” This is likely because one of their primary roles is to spell out the guidelines governing how each party must conduct themselves and identifying their respective obligations in the event a relationship is terminated.

The fact of the matter is, a contract is much more than that. It is a binding agreement between advertisers and their agencies which should identify the terms and conditions that will govern all facets of the relationship, ranging from how an agency is to be compensated to the level of staffing that an agency will deploy on a client’s behalf, to the scope of work to be undertaken by the agency. An effective contract also asserts both parties expectations for how they will conduct themselves while providing a mutual understanding for how the agency will steward a client’s marketing investment from a performance, financial and legal perspective.

Unfortunately, when it comes to contracts, there are too few “industry standards” within the advertising marketplace, varied definitions for descriptive terms and too often a lack of clarity around what is being represented by certain aspects of the agreement language. These gaps create gray areas which are seldom understood, much less agreed to by both parties. Unchecked, these gaps can be costly, particularly to advertisers that aren’t supported by knowledgeable industry experts and attorneys with solid industry experience.

As contract compliance auditors we have reviewed hundreds of Client-Agency agreements and have sat across the table from advertisers and agencies to help mediate gaps in understanding over even the most basic terms or representations. Examples include the definition of “Gross Media,” the assumption that individuals listed in an agency “Staffing Plan” are full-time employees of the agency (rather than contractors or part-timers) and or whether or not the awarding of work to agency affiliates is allowed, let alone how that activity is to be billed.

Let’s examine the financial impact of one of these items. Hypothetically, an advertiser with a $100 million media budget engages a media buying agency. The agreement indicates that media is to be placed on a net basis and that the agency will be paid a commission of 2% on that activity. This appears to be a relatively straightforward description. So the question is; “How much commission should the agency earn?”

  1. $2,000,000
  2. $2,040,000
  3. $2,353,000

It would not be unusual for a lay legal or procurement advisor assisting an advertiser in drafting or reviewing contract language to assume that the answer was 1) $2,000,000. Their assumption in this instance is that the agency’s commission would be calculated by multiplying the net media spend by the agreed upon commission rate.

On the other hand, a seasoned agency finance executive would advocate that the correct answer is 3) $2,353,000. How did they arrive at this figure, which is $353,000 higher than the prior scenario? By “grossing up” the net media spend by 17.65% and then multiplying that total by the agreed upon commission rate. Why would they do this? The answer would likely be; “that is the standard methodology used in the industry.”

This view has its roots in the golden days of advertising, when agencies delivered “full-service” and earned a 15% commission on their clients’ gross advertising investment. In that era, a biller would have to mark-up a net expenditure by 17.65 % in order to account for the 15% commission rate:

  • 15% divided by (100% – 15%) or 85% = .1765
  • If the net expenditure was $85, the total cost would be calculated by multiplying or “grossing up” the net amount by 1.1765 to arrive at a total cost to the advertiser of $100.
  • On the $100 gross expenditure the agency would earn $15 or 15%.

One might legitimately question why an agency would gross up a net expense by 17.65%? After all, it has been many years since full-service agencies were compensated at that rate. Should not the mark-up amount be specific to the negotiated commission rate? Using this approach for the 2% commission example could suggest that the correct answer to the aforementioned question would be 2) $2,040,000:

  • 2% divided by (100% – 2%) or 98% = .0204
  • $100,000,000 net media “grossed up” would be calculated by multiplying the net amount by 1.0204 to arrive at a gross amount of $102,040,000.
  • The agency’s commission on the grossed up media total would be $2,040,000

So which methodology represents the proper approach for calculating an agency’s commission in this example? Unfortunately, there is no definitive answer. This is a classic case where had a term such as “Commission” or “Gross Amount” included an example of how such formulas were to be applied, it would have clarified the intended agency remuneration, staving off a potentially difficult conversation between client and agency long after the ink on the agreement had dried. We can all learn from the words of the 18th century Scottish philosopher, Thomas Reid:

There is no greater impediment to the advancement of knowledge than the ambiguity of words.

 Interested in a securing a second-opinion regarding the clarity and soundness of your organization’s agency agreements? Contact Cliff Campeau, Principal of AARM at ccampeau@aarmusa.com.

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